Myanmar's Civil War: The Junta Under Pressure

Myanmar's civil war, intensified by the military junta's seizure of power on February 1, 2021, has produced the most geographically diffuse armed conflict in the world. ACLED's Conflict Index identifies over 1,200 distinct armed groups involved in at least one violent event in Myanmar, the most of any conflict it tracks, based on data through late November 2025 (ACLED, 2025-11-28). ACLED recorded roughly 96,000 conflict deaths cumulatively since the 2021 coup as of March 2026 (Al Jazeera, citing ACLED, 2026-03-27), rising to 100,114 by July 2026 (France 24, citing ACLED, 2026-07-01).

Background

The Tatmadaw (Myanmar Armed Forces) has governed Myanmar in various forms since the 1960s. A democratic transition from 2011 to 2021, led in partnership with Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD), ended with the coup, which the military justified with disputed claims of fraud in the November 2020 elections. Suu Kyi and thousands of NLD officials were arrested. The ensuing crackdown on peaceful protests — with security forces killing hundreds of demonstrators — drove armed resistance on a scale the country had not previously seen.

A shadow National Unity Government (NUG) was formed by civilian politicians, quickly aligning with existing ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) that had fought the central government for decades. The People's Defence Forces (PDF) emerged as the NUG's armed wing.

Current Situation

In late 2023, a coordinated 'Operation 1027' offensive by three major ethnic armed organizations — the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), and the Arakan Army (AA) — seized significant territory in Shan and Rakhine states, capturing major border trade towns and SAC military bases. The offensive revealed the junta's inability to defend multiple fronts simultaneously.

Control remains highly contested and fluid: the Arakan Army holds most of Rakhine State (Al Jazeera, citing ACLED, 2026-03-27), while resistance forces retain a foothold in parts of Sagaing, Kayin, and northern Shan, but the junta has reclaimed territory in Chin and Kayah states and parts of Sagaing and Mandalay regions since late 2025 (Mappr conflict-zone mapping; The Irrawaddy, 2026). The junta retains Naypyidaw, Mandalay, and Yangon.

The junta has relied heavily on air strikes against civilian areas, using Russian and Chinese-supplied aircraft. Conscription, introduced in 2024, has struggled to meet manpower needs and produced significant draft evasion.

Outlook

Myanmar's conflict appears unlikely to resolve quickly. The junta retains sufficient military capability to deny rebel forces control of major population centers, while the resistance has proven capable of sustained territorial gains in peripheral regions. A prolonged fragmentation scenario — with the country effectively divided into multiple zones of control — is the most broadly anticipated medium-term outcome.

China, Myanmar's most important external partner, has shown ambivalence toward the junta, maintaining relations while pressuring both sides to reduce border disruption and protect Chinese infrastructure investments. ASEAN has been largely ineffective as a mediating institution.

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Sources

Every organisation named above, with the date its cited figure was published or last updated.

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