The deadliest conflicts right now
The wars in Ukraine, Sudan, Gaza and Myanmar are the deadliest ongoing conflicts by casualties and displacement, with the 2026 Iran–US war a major new addition. Every figure below is an estimate — wartime death tolls are contested, often undercounted, and revised over time.
1. Russia–Ukraine war
The largest interstate war in Europe since 1945. Credible estimates put total military casualties on both sides in the hundreds of thousands, alongside tens of thousands of civilian deaths, since February 2022. It remains among the most lethal conflicts in the world. Full briefing →
2. Sudan civil war
The SAF–RSF war has killed an estimated tens of thousands — with the true toll likely far higher given access restrictions — and displaced more than 10 million people, one of the world's largest displacement crises. Famine conditions have been reported in parts of the country. Full briefing →
3. Israel–Gaza war
Health authorities in Gaza have reported well over 70,000 people killed since October 2023, with the real figure likely higher. The war has displaced most of Gaza's population and produced a severe humanitarian crisis. Full briefing →
4. Myanmar civil war
Often underreported, Myanmar's war since the 2021 coup has caused an estimated 90,000+ deaths, displaced over three million people internally and pushed about a million more across borders. Full briefing →
5. The 2026 Iran–US war
A major new war: US–Israeli strikes on Iran, Iranian attacks on US bases across the Gulf, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Casualty estimates are still emerging and contested, but the conflict's strategic and economic impact is global. Full briefing →
What forecasters expect for 2026
AI-driven conflict-forecasting systems such as PRIO's VIEWS project the highest battle-related death tolls in 2026 to fall in Ukraine, Palestine/Israel, Sudan, Pakistan and Nigeria. Forecasts are probabilistic, not certainties, and the Sudan outlook in particular has deteriorated rapidly. Other deadly conflicts to watch include eastern DR Congo, the Sahel insurgency and Somalia.
Why death tolls are so uncertain
Conflict deaths are hard to count. Access is restricted, communications are cut, parties dispute figures, and indirect deaths from hunger and disease often dwarf direct battlefield deaths but go unrecorded. Treat all casualty numbers — including those here — as estimates, and consult primary sources for high-stakes use. See our methodology.
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Frequently asked questions
What is the deadliest conflict in the world in 2026?
By casualties and displacement, the Russia–Ukraine war and the Sudan civil war are among the deadliest, alongside the wars in Gaza and Myanmar and the 2026 Iran–US war. All death tolls are contested estimates.
How many people have died in the Sudan war?
Estimates run into the tens of thousands killed, with the true toll likely far higher due to access restrictions, and more than 10 million people displaced — one of the world's largest displacement crises.
Which conflicts are projected to be deadliest in 2026?
Forecasting systems such as PRIO's VIEWS project the highest battle-related death tolls in Ukraine, Palestine/Israel, Sudan, Pakistan and Nigeria, though forecasts are probabilistic rather than certain.
Why are conflict death tolls uncertain?
Restricted access, communications blackouts, disputed figures and large numbers of indirect deaths from hunger and disease all make accurate counting extremely difficult, so figures should be treated as estimates.