# Global Armed Conflicts Map — llms-full.txt # Full-content reference for LLMs. Neutral, source-attributed (ACLED, UCDP, CFR, ReliefWeb). # 29 active conflict theaters. Generated 2026-06-11. ## The Russia–Ukraine War (https://armedconflicts.org/russia-ukraine-war.html) Status: Active | Intensity: High | Region: Eastern Europe | Type: Interstate war | Since: 2022 Overview: The Russia–Ukraine war is the largest interstate conflict in Europe since the Second World War, following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. It has reshaped European security, energy markets, and global diplomatic alignments. This page is an evergreen orientation. Front lines, territorial control, and casualty estimates change continually — confirm the latest figures with the primary sources listed below before relying on any single number. Key actors: Ukraine (its armed forces and territorial defense, backed by Western military and financial assistance.); Russia (its armed forces and allied formations.); External supporters (NATO members and partners providing aid to Ukraine; states supplying Russia.); Civilian population (communities affected by displacement, strikes, and occupation.) At stake: European security: the post-Cold-War order and the future of NATO's posture.; Territorial sovereignty: internationally recognized borders and occupied territories.; Global markets: grain exports, energy supply, and fertilizer prices.; Humanitarian impact: one of the largest displacement crises in Europe in decades. Timeline: 2014: Russia annexes Crimea and backs armed separatists in the Donbas, beginning the first phase of the conflict. | Feb 2022: Russia launches a full-scale invasion; Ukraine repels the assault on Kyiv. | 2022–23: Ukrainian counteroffensives retake territory around Kharkiv and Kherson; the front later stabilizes. | 2024–26: The war settles into attritional fighting dominated by drones, long-range strikes, and incremental front-line change. Tracking notes: Ukraine is one of the most densely documented wars in history. ACLED logs individual geolocated events (shelling, strikes, clashes) in near real time; UCDP records it as an interstate conflict dyad once annual battle-death thresholds are met; and open-source analysts geolocate combat footage to map control. Casualty figures are heavily contested and treated as estimates here, not confirmed counts. ## The Israel–Gaza War (https://armedconflicts.org/israel-gaza-war.html) Status: Active | Intensity: High | Region: Gaza / West Bank | Type: Asymmetric | Since: 2023 Overview: The Israel–Gaza war is the most intense phase of the long-running Israeli–Palestinian conflict, with severe humanitarian consequences for civilians in Gaza and recurring escalation in the West Bank. This page is an evergreen orientation. Casualty figures, displacement numbers, and ceasefire status change continually and are contested between sources — confirm the latest figures with the primary sources listed below. Key actors: Israel (its government and defense forces.); Palestinian armed groups (including Hamas and other factions operating in Gaza.); Palestinian civilians (the population of Gaza and the West Bank bearing the humanitarian impact.); Mediators (states and organizations involved in ceasefire and hostage negotiations.) At stake: Humanitarian crisis: civilian casualties, displacement, and access to food, water, and medical care.; Regional escalation: links to Lebanon, Yemen, and the Iran–Israel confrontation.; Hostages and detainees: a central issue in negotiations.; Diplomatic settlement: prospects for ceasefire and longer-term political arrangements. Timeline: Oct 2023: A Hamas-led attack on southern Israel triggers a large-scale Israeli military operation in Gaza. | 2024: Fighting spreads regionally, drawing in Hezbollah, the Houthis, and the Iran–Israel confrontation. | 2024–25: Repeated ceasefire and hostage-exchange negotiations produce temporary truces amid a deepening humanitarian crisis. | 2026: The conflict remains the most intense phase of the long-running Israeli–Palestinian dispute. Tracking notes: Casualty figures in Gaza are reported by health authorities and revised over time; Israeli and Palestinian sources differ, and independent verification is difficult under wartime conditions. ACLED maps individual events, UCDP categorizes the dyads, and the CFR tracker frames the diplomatic stakes. Every figure on this page is an estimate drawn from contested reporting. ## The Sudan Civil War (https://armedconflicts.org/sudan-civil-war.html) Status: Active | Intensity: High | Region: Northeast Africa | Type: Civil war | Since: 2023 Overview: The Sudan civil war is a power struggle between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which erupted into open warfare in April 2023. It has produced one of the world's largest displacement and hunger crises. This page is an evergreen orientation. Territorial control and humanitarian figures change continually — confirm the latest figures with the primary sources listed below. Key actors: Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) (the national military.); Rapid Support Forces (RSF) (the paramilitary force opposing the SAF.); Allied militias and regional actors (groups and external states with stakes in the outcome.); Civilian population (communities facing displacement, famine risk, and atrocities, notably in Darfur.) At stake: Humanitarian catastrophe: mass displacement and acute food insecurity across the country.; Regional stability: spillover risks for Chad, South Sudan, and the wider Sahel and Horn of Africa.; Civilian protection: reports of atrocities, especially in Darfur.; State continuity: control of institutions, resources, and territory. Timeline: 2019: Long-time ruler Omar al-Bashir is ousted; a fragile civilian–military transition begins. | 2021: A coup derails the transition, concentrating power in the military and the RSF. | Apr 2023: Tensions between the SAF and RSF erupt into open warfare in Khartoum and Darfur. | 2024–26: Fighting spreads nationwide, producing mass displacement, famine risk, and atrocity warnings. Tracking notes: Sudan is a severe reporting-gap conflict: communications blackouts and restricted access mean events are often documented with a lag and incompletely. ACLED records what can be verified, UCDP tracks the conflict dyads, and humanitarian agencies estimate displacement and famine risk. Figures here are conservative estimates and likely understate the true toll. ## The Lebanon–Israel Conflict (https://armedconflicts.org/lebanon-israel-conflict.html) Status: Active | Intensity: High | Region: Middle East | Type: Interstate / non-state | Since: 2023 Overview: The Lebanon–Israel conflict centers on hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah, the Lebanese armed political movement. It is closely tied to the Israel–Gaza war and the broader Iran–Israel confrontation. This page is an evergreen orientation. Ceasefire status and cross-border activity change rapidly — confirm the latest figures with the primary sources listed below. Key actors: Israel (its government and defense forces.); Hezbollah (the Lebanese armed political movement.); Lebanese state and civilians (the population and institutions affected by the fighting.); Regional actors (states and groups linked to the wider Iran–Israel confrontation.) At stake: Regional escalation: the risk of a wider Middle East war.; Civilian impact: displacement and damage in southern Lebanon and northern Israel.; Lebanese stability: pressure on an already fragile state and economy.; Deterrence dynamics: links to Iran, Gaza, and Red Sea theaters. Timeline: 2006: A major war between Israel and Hezbollah ends in a UN-brokered ceasefire. | Oct 2023: Cross-border exchanges resume in parallel with the Gaza war. | 2024: Escalation intensifies before a negotiated reduction in hostilities. | 2025–26: The front remains volatile, sensitive to the wider Iran–Israel dynamic. Tracking notes: Cross-border strikes and their effects are logged as discrete events by ACLED, while UCDP treats the Israel–Hezbollah confrontation within its dyad framework. Because the front escalates and de-escalates quickly, status descriptions age fast — always check live reporting for the current state. ## The Yemen War (https://armedconflicts.org/yemen-war.html) Status: Active | Intensity: High | Region: Arabian Peninsula | Type: Civil war | Since: 2014 Overview: Yemen's war pits the Houthi movement against the internationally recognized government and its backers. In recent phases it has expanded to attacks on Red Sea shipping, drawing in external naval forces. This page is an evergreen orientation. Front lines, shipping-attack activity, and humanitarian figures change continually — confirm the latest figures with the primary sources listed below. Key actors: Houthi movement (Ansar Allah) (controlling much of northern Yemen.); Yemeni government and coalition (the internationally recognized government and supporting states.); External naval forces (states protecting Red Sea shipping lanes.); Civilian population (communities facing one of the world's most severe humanitarian crises.) At stake: Global shipping: disruption to Red Sea and Suez Canal trade routes.; Humanitarian crisis: widespread hunger, displacement, and disease.; Regional escalation: links to the Iran–Israel confrontation and Gulf security.; State fragmentation: control of territory, ports, and institutions. Timeline: 2014: Houthi forces seize the capital Sana'a, triggering the war. | 2015: A Saudi-led coalition intervenes on behalf of the recognized government. | 2022: A UN-brokered truce reduces front-line fighting, though tensions persist. | 2023–26: Red Sea shipping attacks expand the conflict's international dimension. Tracking notes: Yemen combines front-line combat, airstrikes, and maritime attacks, each captured differently: ACLED geolocates land and air events, maritime incidents are tracked by naval and shipping bodies, and humanitarian agencies estimate the civilian toll. Fatality and famine figures are estimates compiled under difficult access conditions. ## The Myanmar Civil War (https://armedconflicts.org/myanmar-civil-war.html) Status: Active | Intensity: High | Region: Southeast Asia | Type: Civil war | Since: 2021 Overview: Myanmar's civil war followed the 2021 military coup, pitting the junta against a broad coalition of pro-democracy resistance forces and long-established ethnic armed organizations. Fighting spans much of the country. This page is an evergreen orientation. Territorial control and casualty figures change continually — confirm the latest figures with the primary sources listed below. Key actors: Military junta (the State Administration Council and armed forces.); Resistance forces (People's Defense Forces aligned with the opposition.); Ethnic armed organizations (long-established groups across border regions.); Civilian population (communities facing displacement, airstrikes, and economic collapse.) At stake: Humanitarian impact: mass displacement and civilian harm.; Regional stability: spillover for neighbors and cross-border crime.; Democratic future: the contest over Myanmar's governance.; Territorial control: shifting frontlines between the junta and resistance. Timeline: Feb 2021: The military seizes power, detaining the elected civilian leadership. | 2021: Mass protests give way to armed resistance and the formation of People's Defense Forces. | 2023–24: Coordinated offensives by resistance and ethnic forces capture significant territory. | 2025–26: Fighting continues nationwide with the junta on the defensive in several regions. Tracking notes: Myanmar is a major underreported conflict: internet shutdowns and restricted access limit verification, so ACLED event data and casualty estimates likely understate the toll. UCDP tracks multiple dyads given the many ethnic armed organizations involved. Treat all figures as conservative estimates. ## The Sahel Insurgency (https://armedconflicts.org/sahel-insurgency.html) Status: Active | Intensity: High | Region: West Africa / Sahel | Type: Transnational insurgency | Since: 2012 Overview: The Sahel insurgency is a transnational jihadist conflict concentrated in the tri-border area of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, driven principally by JNIM (al-Qaeda-aligned) and the Islamic State Sahel Province (ISGS). Armed groups operate across porous national borders rather than within them. This page is an evergreen orientation. Group control, alliances, and the security role of external and regional forces shift continually — confirm the latest figures with the primary sources listed below. Key actors: JNIM (the al-Qaeda-aligned coalition of Sahelian armed groups.); Islamic State Sahel Province (ISGS) (the rival Islamic State affiliate.); National armies and juntas (the militaries of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger.); Civilian population (communities facing displacement, blockades, and violence across the tri-border region.) At stake: Regional spillover: expansion toward coastal West African states.; Humanitarian crisis: mass displacement, blockaded towns, and food insecurity.; State authority: contested governance and a wave of military coups.; External realignment: shifting foreign security partnerships in the region. Timeline: 2012: A rebellion and jihadist takeover in northern Mali triggers French intervention. | 2015–19: Violence spreads into central Mali, Burkina Faso, and western Niger. | 2020–23: A wave of military coups reshapes politics in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. | 2024–26: Insurgency expands toward coastal West Africa as foreign security arrangements shift. Tracking notes: The Sahel is one of ACLED's most closely watched regions, with event data showing violence migrating across borders. Because the conflict is transnational, country-by-country figures understate it; the regional picture matters more. UCDP tracks the jihadist dyads, and fatality estimates are compiled from fragmentary local reporting. ## The Syria Conflict (https://armedconflicts.org/syria-civil-war.html) Status: Active | Intensity: High | Region: Middle East | Type: Multi-party / instability | Since: 2011 Overview: Syria's conflict has evolved from a civil war into a fragmented landscape of competing armed factions, foreign forces, and a contested political transition. Violence persists across multiple fronts despite shifts in territorial control. This page is an evergreen orientation. Figures and control change continually — confirm the latest with the primary sources listed below. Key actors: Transitional authorities (forces now controlling much of the country.); Armed factions (rival groups contesting territory and influence.); Kurdish-led forces (controlling parts of the northeast.); Foreign militaries (external states with forces or influence inside Syria.) At stake: Stability of the transition: whether a durable political settlement holds.; Civilian protection: displacement and the safety of returnees.; Regional spillover: links to Turkey, Iraq, and the wider region.; Counter-ISIS: the residual threat of an Islamic State resurgence. Timeline: 2011: Anti-government protests escalate into civil war. | 2014–17: The Islamic State seizes and then loses large areas of territory. | 2024: A rapid offensive topples the long-ruling government, opening a contested transition. | 2025–26: Syria remains fragmented amid efforts to consolidate a new political order. Tracking notes: Syria has been tracked for over a decade through ACLED event data, UCDP dyads, and specialist monitoring groups. The post-transition period brings new uncertainty about control and casualties; figures are estimates and the map of who governs what changes frequently. ## The Iraq Conflict (https://armedconflicts.org/iraq-conflict.html) Status: Active | Intensity: Medium | Region: Middle East | Type: Insurgency / instability | Since: 2003 Overview: Iraq faces a residual Islamic State insurgency, the influence of armed militias, and recurring political instability, even as large-scale conventional fighting has subsided. This page is an evergreen orientation. Figures and control change continually — confirm the latest with the primary sources listed below. Key actors: Iraqi security forces (the national military and police.); Islamic State remnants (conducting a low-level insurgency.); Armed militias (including Iran-aligned groups.); Kurdish authorities (governing the autonomous north.) At stake: ISIS resurgence: preventing a return of large-scale insurgency.; Sovereignty: balancing foreign influence and militia power.; Sectarian stability: managing political and sectarian tensions.; Regional spillover: links to Syria and the Iran–Israel confrontation. Timeline: 2003: A US-led invasion topples the government and triggers years of insurgency. | 2014: The Islamic State seizes Mosul and much of northern and western Iraq. | 2017: Iraqi forces and partners declare military victory over the Islamic State. | 2018–26: A residual ISIS insurgency and militia influence persist amid political instability. Tracking notes: Iraq's violence is now lower-intensity and episodic, captured by ACLED as scattered attacks and security operations. UCDP records the residual insurgency dyads. Because incidents are sporadic, trend lines matter more than any single month; figures are estimates. ## The Afghanistan Conflict (https://armedconflicts.org/afghanistan-conflict.html) Status: Active | Intensity: Medium | Region: South-Central Asia | Type: Insurgency / instability | Since: 2021 Overview: Since the 2021 Taliban takeover, Afghanistan faces an insurgency by the Islamic State Khorasan (ISIS-K), a severe humanitarian and economic crisis, and tensions with neighbors. This page is an evergreen orientation. Figures and control change continually — confirm the latest with the primary sources listed below. Key actors: Taliban authorities (the de facto government.); Islamic State Khorasan (ISIS-K) (the principal insurgent threat.); Civilian population (facing humanitarian and economic hardship.); Neighboring states (managing borders and security concerns.) At stake: Humanitarian crisis: widespread poverty and aid dependence.; Counter-terrorism: the ISIS-K threat to the region and beyond.; Women's rights: severe restrictions under Taliban rule.; Regional tensions: border disputes with Pakistan and others. Timeline: 2001: A US-led intervention topples the first Taliban government. | 2001–21: A two-decade insurgency follows against the internationally backed government. | Aug 2021: The Taliban retake power as foreign forces withdraw. | 2022–26: ISIS-K insurgency and a deep humanitarian crisis define Taliban-ruled Afghanistan. Tracking notes: Post-2021, Afghanistan's violence shifted from insurgency-versus-state to ISIS-K attacks against the Taliban authorities, tracked by ACLED as discrete incidents. Humanitarian agencies document the broader crisis. Verification is constrained, so figures are estimates. ## The Somalia Conflict (https://armedconflicts.org/somalia-al-shabaab.html) Status: Active | Intensity: High | Region: Horn of Africa | Type: Insurgency | Since: 2006 Overview: Somalia's conflict centers on the al-Shabaab insurgency, an al-Qaeda affiliate, opposed by the federal government and African Union forces. Fighting and attacks persist across the south and center. This page is an evergreen orientation. Figures and control change continually — confirm the latest with the primary sources listed below. Key actors: Somali federal government (and national security forces.); Al-Shabaab (the al-Qaeda-aligned insurgent group.); African Union forces (supporting the government.); Clan militias (local armed groups with shifting alignments.) At stake: Counter-terrorism: containing al-Shabaab's reach.; State-building: extending government control and services.; Humanitarian impact: drought, displacement, and food insecurity.; Regional security: spillover across the Horn of Africa. Timeline: 2006–09: Al-Shabaab emerges and grows into a major insurgent force. | 2011–12: African Union and Somali forces push the group out of the capital. | 2022–23: A government offensive backed by local militias retakes rural territory. | 2024–26: Fighting continues as the group remains resilient in the south and center. Tracking notes: Somalia is closely tracked by ACLED, which logs al-Shabaab attacks, government operations, and clan-militia clashes. UCDP records the al-Shabaab dyad. Casualty figures from bombings are reported quickly; rural fighting is harder to verify, so totals are estimates. ## The Eastern DR Congo Conflict (https://armedconflicts.org/dr-congo-m23-conflict.html) Status: Active | Intensity: High | Region: Central Africa | Type: Multi-party insurgency | Since: 2004 Overview: Eastern DR Congo, especially North and South Kivu, hosts a complex war involving the M23 rebellion, scores of other armed groups, and contested regional involvement, driving massive civilian displacement. This page is an evergreen orientation. Figures and control change continually — confirm the latest with the primary sources listed below. Key actors: DR Congo armed forces (FARDC) (the national military.); M23 (a prominent rebel group in the east.); Other armed groups (dozens operating across the Kivus and Ituri.); Regional actors (neighboring states accused of involvement.) At stake: Humanitarian catastrophe: one of the world's largest displacement crises.; Regional war risk: tensions between neighboring states.; Mineral resources: control of strategically valuable mining areas.; Civilian protection: atrocities against civilians in the east. Timeline: 1996–2003: Two Congo wars draw in multiple neighboring states. | 2012–13: An earlier M23 rebellion briefly seizes the city of Goma. | 2021–22: M23 re-emerges and launches new offensives in the east. | 2024–26: M23 advances and regional tensions escalate amid mass displacement. Tracking notes: Eastern Congo's many overlapping armed groups make it one of the hardest conflicts to map; ACLED tracks events across the Kivus and Ituri, and UCDP records numerous dyads. Displacement is estimated by humanitarian agencies. The sheer number of actors means figures are partial estimates. ## The Ethiopia Conflict (https://armedconflicts.org/ethiopia-conflict.html) Status: Active | Intensity: High | Region: Horn of Africa | Type: Multiple insurgencies | Since: 2018 Overview: Ethiopia faces multiple overlapping conflicts, including insurgencies in the Amhara and Oromia regions and unresolved tensions following the Tigray war, straining national stability. This page is an evergreen orientation. Figures and control change continually — confirm the latest with the primary sources listed below. Key actors: Federal government (and national defense forces.); Amhara Fano militias (fighting federal forces in the north.); Oromo Liberation Army (operating in Oromia.); Regional forces (with shifting alignments across regions.) At stake: National cohesion: the risk of further fragmentation.; Civilian protection: abuses and displacement across regions.; Humanitarian recovery: rebuilding after the Tigray war.; Regional stability: spillover in the Horn of Africa. Timeline: 2020–22: A devastating war in Tigray kills large numbers and displaces millions. | Nov 2022: A peace agreement halts the Tigray war. | 2023–24: Conflict intensifies in the Amhara and Oromia regions. | 2025–26: Multiple regional insurgencies strain national stability. Tracking notes: Ethiopia's conflicts are tracked by ACLED across several regions, with UCDP recording distinct dyads for Tigray, Amhara, and Oromia. The Tigray war's death toll is estimated to be among the highest of any recent conflict but remains uncertain; all figures are estimates. ## The South Sudan Conflict (https://armedconflicts.org/south-sudan-conflict.html) Status: Active | Intensity: Medium | Region: East Africa | Type: Civil conflict | Since: 2013 Overview: South Sudan's fragile peace deal remains under strain from political rivalries, recurrent communal violence, and delayed transitions, against a backdrop of severe humanitarian need. This page is an evergreen orientation. Figures and control change continually — confirm the latest with the primary sources listed below. Key actors: Government forces (aligned with the presidency.); Opposition factions (former civil-war rivals in a power-sharing deal.); Communal militias (involved in localized violence.); Civilian population (facing displacement and food insecurity.) At stake: Peace deal survival: whether the transition holds.; Communal violence: localized but deadly clashes.; Humanitarian crisis: widespread hunger and displacement.; Oil and economy: control of revenue and resources. Timeline: 2011: South Sudan gains independence from Sudan. | 2013: Civil war erupts between factions loyal to rival leaders. | 2018: A power-sharing peace agreement is signed. | 2020–26: A fragile unity government holds amid recurring communal violence and delays. Tracking notes: South Sudan's violence is increasingly localized, which ACLED captures as communal and militia events rather than a single national front. UCDP tracks the civil-war dyads. Humanitarian agencies estimate displacement and hunger; figures are estimates compiled under difficult conditions. ## The Nigeria Conflict (https://armedconflicts.org/nigeria-boko-haram.html) Status: Active | Intensity: High | Region: West Africa | Type: Insurgency / communal violence | Since: 2009 Overview: Nigeria faces a jihadist insurgency by Boko Haram and the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) in the northeast, alongside armed banditry in the northwest and farmer-herder violence in the middle belt. This page is an evergreen orientation. Figures and control change continually — confirm the latest with the primary sources listed below. Key actors: Nigerian security forces (the military and police.); Boko Haram (the long-running jihadist insurgency.); ISWAP (the Islamic State West Africa Province.); Armed bandits and militias (driving violence in other regions.) At stake: Counter-insurgency: containing Boko Haram and ISWAP.; Civilian security: kidnappings, raids, and displacement.; Food security: violence disrupting farming regions.; Regional spillover: links to the Sahel and Lake Chad basin. Timeline: 2009: Boko Haram launches its insurgency in northeastern Nigeria. | 2014: The group seizes territory and abducts the Chibok schoolgirls, drawing global attention. | 2016: A faction splits to form ISWAP, aligned with the Islamic State. | 2018–26: Jihadist insurgency persists alongside banditry and farmer–herder violence. Tracking notes: Nigeria's overlapping crises are tracked by ACLED across distinct categories — jihadist insurgency, banditry, and communal violence — which is why national totals can obscure very different dynamics by region. UCDP records the insurgency dyads; kidnapping and raid figures are estimates. ## The Mozambique (Cabo Delgado) Conflict (https://armedconflicts.org/mozambique-cabo-delgado.html) Status: Active | Intensity: Medium | Region: Southern Africa | Type: Insurgency | Since: 2017 Overview: An Islamic State-linked insurgency in Mozambique's northern Cabo Delgado province has displaced hundreds of thousands and threatened major natural-gas investments, despite regional military support. This page is an evergreen orientation. Figures and control change continually — confirm the latest with the primary sources listed below. Key actors: Mozambican forces (the national military.); Insurgents (Ansar al-Sunna / IS-linked) (operating in Cabo Delgado.); Regional and foreign forces (supporting counter-insurgency.); Civilian population (facing displacement and attacks.) At stake: Energy investment: security of major liquefied-natural-gas projects.; Humanitarian impact: mass displacement in the north.; Counter-terrorism: containing the IS-linked threat.; Regional security: spillover in southern Africa. Timeline: 2017: The insurgency begins with attacks in Cabo Delgado. | 2020–21: Insurgents seize towns and attack the gas hub at Palma. | 2021: Regional and foreign forces intervene to support the government. | 2022–26: The insurgency is reduced but continues at a lower level. Tracking notes: Cabo Delgado is tracked by ACLED as a discrete insurgency, with displacement estimated by humanitarian agencies. Remote terrain and restricted access make verification difficult, so attack and casualty figures are estimates. ## The Libya Conflict (https://armedconflicts.org/libya-conflict.html) Status: Active | Intensity: Medium | Region: North Africa | Type: Political / armed division | Since: 2011 Overview: Libya remains split between rival administrations in the west and east, each backed by armed factions and foreign powers, with a fragile ceasefire punctuated by localized clashes. This page is an evergreen orientation. Figures and control change continually — confirm the latest with the primary sources listed below. Key actors: Western government (based in Tripoli.); Eastern authorities (aligned with the Libyan National Army.); Armed factions and militias (with shifting allegiances.); Foreign backers (external states supporting rival sides.) At stake: Political reunification: prospects for elections and a unified state.; Oil resources: control of production and revenue.; Migration: Libya as a transit route to Europe.; Foreign influence: competition among external powers. Timeline: 2011: An uprising and NATO intervention topple Muammar Gaddafi. | 2014: Libya splits into rival governments and armed coalitions. | 2019–20: An eastern offensive on Tripoli fails; a ceasefire follows. | 2021–26: A fragile ceasefire holds amid stalled elections and periodic clashes. Tracking notes: Libya's violence is now episodic — militia clashes and localized flare-ups rather than full-scale war — captured by ACLED as discrete events. UCDP records the relevant dyads. The political division is more stable than the military situation, which can shift quickly. ## The Colombia Conflict (https://armedconflicts.org/colombia-conflict.html) Status: Active | Intensity: Medium | Region: South America | Type: Insurgency / criminal violence | Since: 1964 Overview: Despite the 2016 peace deal with the FARC, Colombia faces continued violence from FARC dissident factions, the ELN guerrilla group, and criminal organizations contesting rural territory and trafficking routes. This page is an evergreen orientation. Figures and control change continually — confirm the latest with the primary sources listed below. Key actors: Colombian state forces (the military and police.); ELN (the National Liberation Army guerrilla group.); FARC dissidents (factions that rejected the peace deal.); Criminal groups (controlling drug-trafficking economies.) At stake: Peace process: consolidating the FARC agreement and new talks.; Rural security: violence against communities and activists.; Drug economy: coca cultivation and trafficking.; Regional spillover: tensions along the Venezuela border. Timeline: 1964: The FARC and other guerrilla groups emerge, beginning decades of armed conflict. | 2016: A peace agreement demobilizes the FARC. | 2017–22: FARC dissidents and the ELN expand in areas the FARC vacated. | 2023–26: Government peace efforts continue amid persistent rural violence. Tracking notes: Colombia's conflict is now fragmented among dissidents, the ELN, and criminal groups, which ACLED tracks as distinct armed actors. UCDP records the relevant dyads. Because much violence targets individuals and communities, homicide and displacement data complement conflict-event data. ## The Mexican Drug War (https://armedconflicts.org/mexico-drug-war.html) Status: Active | Intensity: High | Region: North America | Type: Criminal conflict | Since: 2006 Overview: Mexico's drug war pits the state against powerful, fragmenting cartels and pits cartels against one another, producing sustained high levels of homicide, disappearances, and territorial control disputes. This page is an evergreen orientation. Figures and control change continually — confirm the latest with the primary sources listed below. Key actors: Mexican security forces (military, national guard, and police.); Major cartels (including Sinaloa and CJNG and their rivals.); Splinter groups (fragments of larger organizations.); Civilian population (caught in violence and disappearances.) At stake: Public security: among the world's highest homicide tolls.; State authority: cartel control over territory and institutions.; Drug trafficking: fentanyl and other flows to the United States.; Bilateral relations: security cooperation with the U.S. Timeline: 2006: The government launches a military-led offensive against the cartels. | 2010s: Major cartels fragment, multiplying the number of armed groups. | 2019–22: Fentanyl trafficking intensifies the US dimension of the conflict. | 2023–26: Cartel violence and fragmentation continue at high lethality. Tracking notes: The Mexican drug war is unusual in conflict tracking: much of its lethality appears in homicide and disappearance statistics rather than battlefield data. ACLED has expanded coverage of cartel violence, and UCDP records some non-state dyads, but the criminal nature of the conflict means standard war metrics capture only part of it. ## The Haiti Crisis (https://armedconflicts.org/haiti-gang-violence.html) Status: Active | Intensity: High | Region: Caribbean | Type: Gang conflict / state collapse | Since: 2021 Overview: Armed gangs control much of Port-au-Prince and key infrastructure, driving a collapse of state authority, mass displacement, and a humanitarian emergency, with an international security mission deployed in support of Haitian police. This page is an evergreen orientation. Figures and control change continually — confirm the latest with the primary sources listed below. Key actors: Haitian National Police (the principal state security force.); Armed gangs and coalitions (controlling much of the capital.); Multinational Security Support mission (international forces backing the police.); Civilian population (facing displacement, hunger, and violence.) At stake: State survival: restoring basic governance and security.; Humanitarian emergency: hunger, displacement, and disease.; Political transition: prospects for stability and elections.; Regional impact: migration and Caribbean security. Timeline: 2021: The assassination of the president deepens a political and security vacuum. | 2022–23: Gang coalitions expand control across Port-au-Prince. | 2024: Gang offensives trigger a governing crisis; an international mission is authorized. | 2025–26: Gangs retain control of much of the capital amid a humanitarian emergency. Tracking notes: Haiti's crisis is tracked by ACLED as gang violence and clashes, alongside UN and humanitarian reporting on displacement and killings. Gang-controlled areas are dangerous to access, so figures are estimates and the situation can change rapidly. ## The Ecuador Crisis (https://armedconflicts.org/ecuador-conflict.html) Status: Active | Intensity: High | Region: South America | Type: Criminal conflict | Since: 2021 Overview: Ecuador has experienced a dramatic surge in violence as transnational-linked gangs fight over trafficking routes and prisons, prompting the government to declare an internal armed conflict and deploy the military. This page is an evergreen orientation. Figures and control change continually — confirm the latest with the primary sources listed below. Key actors: Ecuadorian state forces (military and police.); Criminal gangs (including groups linked to foreign cartels.); Prison-based networks (driving much of the violence.); Civilian population (affected by violence and insecurity.) At stake: Public security: a rapid rise in homicides and attacks.; Drug trafficking: Ecuador's role as a transit hub.; State control: prisons and territory contested by gangs.; Regional spillover: links to Colombian and Mexican networks. Timeline: 2018–20: Shifting cocaine routes increase the presence of transnational trafficking networks. | 2021: Deadly prison massacres signal escalating gang warfare. | 2023: High-profile violence, including a presidential candidate's assassination, shocks the country. | 2024–26: The government declares an internal armed conflict and militarizes the response. Tracking notes: Ecuador's rapid escalation is reflected in both ACLED event data and national homicide statistics, which together capture a conflict that blends criminal violence with a militarized state response. Prison violence and trafficking dynamics make some incidents hard to verify; figures are estimates. ## The Pakistan Conflict (https://armedconflicts.org/pakistan-conflict.html) Status: Active | Intensity: High | Region: South Asia | Type: Insurgency | Since: 2007 Overview: Pakistan faces a resurgent insurgency by the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), particularly in the northwest, alongside a separatist insurgency in Balochistan and tensions along the Afghan border. This page is an evergreen orientation. Figures and control change continually — confirm the latest with the primary sources listed below. Key actors: Pakistani security forces (the military and paramilitary.); Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) (the principal jihadist insurgency.); Baloch separatist groups (fighting in Balochistan.); Civilian population (affected by attacks and operations.) At stake: Counter-insurgency: containing the TTP resurgence.; Separatism: the Balochistan insurgency.; Border tensions: friction with Afghanistan.; Regional stability: nuclear-armed Pakistan's internal security. Timeline: 2007: The TTP forms and launches a major insurgency. | 2014–16: Military operations push the TTP back and reduce attacks. | 2021–22: The TTP regroups following the Taliban takeover in Afghanistan. | 2023–26: TTP attacks resurge alongside a persistent Baloch insurgency. Tracking notes: Pakistan's insurgencies are tracked by ACLED across the northwest and Balochistan, with UCDP recording the TTP and Baloch dyads. Attacks on security forces are reported relatively quickly; remote-area incidents are harder to verify, so figures are estimates. ## The India–Pakistan & Kashmir Conflict (https://armedconflicts.org/india-pakistan-kashmir.html) Status: Active | Intensity: Medium | Region: South Asia | Type: Interstate / insurgency | Since: 1947 Overview: The India–Pakistan dispute over Kashmir combines interstate tension along the Line of Control with militancy inside the contested region, periodically flaring into crises between two nuclear-armed neighbors. This page is an evergreen orientation. Figures and control change continually — confirm the latest with the primary sources listed below. Key actors: India (its armed and security forces.); Pakistan (its military and security establishment.); Militant groups (active in the contested region.); Kashmiri civilians (living amid militarization and unrest.) At stake: Nuclear risk: escalation between two nuclear-armed states.; Territorial dispute: the unresolved status of Kashmir.; Counter-militancy: violence within the contested region.; Regional stability: South Asian security dynamics. Timeline: 1947–48: Partition and the first India–Pakistan war over Kashmir set the dispute in motion. | 1999: The Kargil conflict brings the two nuclear-armed states into direct fighting. | 2019: India revokes the special status of Indian-administered Kashmir, raising tensions. | 2020–26: Periodic crises and militancy continue along the Line of Control. Tracking notes: The Kashmir dispute combines interstate tension with localized militancy, which ACLED captures as cross-border incidents and internal violence, while UCDP records both the interstate and insurgency dimensions. Casualty reporting is contested between the two states; figures are estimates. ## The Turkey–Kurdish Conflict (https://armedconflicts.org/turkey-kurdish-conflict.html) Status: Active | Intensity: Medium | Region: Middle East | Type: Insurgency | Since: 1984 Overview: The decades-long conflict between the Turkish state and the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) includes operations inside Turkey and across the borders with Iraq and Syria, with periodic moves toward a peace process. This page is an evergreen orientation. Figures and control change continually — confirm the latest with the primary sources listed below. Key actors: Turkish armed forces (conducting domestic and cross-border operations.); Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) (the principal armed group.); Kurdish forces in Syria/Iraq (linked groups across borders.); Civilian population (affected in the conflict zones.) At stake: Peace process: prospects for a durable settlement.; Cross-border operations: actions in Iraq and Syria.; Regional alignments: links to the Syrian conflict.; Civilian security: impact in affected areas. Timeline: 1984: The PKK launches its insurgency against the Turkish state. | 2013–15: A ceasefire and peace process collapse, renewing fighting. | 2016–20: Turkey conducts cross-border operations in Syria and Iraq. | 2024–26: New steps toward a peace process emerge amid continued operations. Tracking notes: The conflict spans Turkey, Iraq, and Syria, which ACLED tracks as cross-border operations and clashes, with UCDP recording the long-running PKK dyad. Because it crosses borders and involves allied groups, the conflict is best read regionally; figures are estimates. ## The Central African Republic Conflict (https://armedconflicts.org/central-african-republic.html) Status: Active | Intensity: Medium | Region: Central Africa | Type: Civil conflict | Since: 2012 Overview: The Central African Republic faces ongoing instability from armed groups contesting territory outside the capital, despite peace agreements and the presence of UN and foreign security forces. This page is an evergreen orientation. Figures and control change continually — confirm the latest with the primary sources listed below. Key actors: CAR government (and national forces.); Armed groups (various factions in the interior.); UN peacekeepers (MINUSCA) (supporting stabilization.); Foreign security forces (external partners backing the government.) At stake: Stabilization: extending state authority beyond the capital.; Civilian protection: violence and displacement in the interior.; Resource control: mining and trafficking economies.; Foreign influence: external security partnerships. Timeline: 2013: A rebel coalition seizes power, triggering sectarian violence. | 2014–18: A UN peacekeeping mission deploys amid continued armed-group violence. | 2019: A peace agreement is signed with numerous armed groups. | 2020–26: Fighting continues in the interior despite the deal and foreign support. Tracking notes: The Central African Republic is tracked by ACLED as armed-group violence concentrated outside the capital, with UCDP recording the relevant dyads. Remote terrain and limited access make verification difficult, so figures are estimates. ## The Armenia–Azerbaijan Conflict (https://armedconflicts.org/armenia-azerbaijan-conflict.html) Status: Tensions | Intensity: Medium | Region: South Caucasus | Type: Interstate | Since: 1988 Overview: Following Azerbaijan's 2023 recovery of Nagorno-Karabakh and the exodus of its Armenian population, Armenia and Azerbaijan remain in tense negotiations over borders and a final peace treaty, with periodic friction. This page is an evergreen orientation. Figures and control change continually — confirm the latest with the primary sources listed below. Key actors: Armenia (its government and forces.); Azerbaijan (its government and forces.); Regional powers (external states with influence in the Caucasus.); Displaced populations (affected by the Karabakh exodus.) At stake: Peace treaty: whether a durable agreement is reached.; Border demarcation: unresolved frontier disputes.; Regional alignments: competition among outside powers.; Displaced communities: the fate of those who fled Karabakh. Timeline: 1988–94: The first Nagorno-Karabakh war ends with Armenian control of the enclave. | 2020: A 44-day war sees Azerbaijan retake surrounding territories. | 2023: Azerbaijan recovers Nagorno-Karabakh; most ethnic Armenians flee. | 2024–26: Armenia and Azerbaijan negotiate a peace treaty amid periodic tension. Tracking notes: With the Karabakh question settled militarily, tracking now focuses on border incidents and the peace process rather than active war, which ACLED captures as discrete clashes. UCDP records the interstate dyad. The situation is tense but far less violent than during the wars; status can still shift. ## Taiwan Strait Tensions (https://armedconflicts.org/taiwan-strait-tensions.html) Status: Tensions | Intensity: Elevated | Region: East Asia | Type: Interstate standoff | Since: 1949 Overview: The Taiwan Strait is a major geopolitical flashpoint. China asserts sovereignty over Taiwan, which governs itself, amid sustained military pressure, incursions, and the risk of escalation drawing in outside powers. This page is an evergreen orientation. Figures and control change continually — confirm the latest with the primary sources listed below. Key actors: Taiwan (its government and defense forces.); China (PRC) (asserting sovereignty and applying pressure.); United States (a key external security actor.); Regional states (with stakes in stability and trade.) At stake: War risk: the possibility of a major-power conflict.; Global economy: semiconductors and shipping lanes.; Alliance dynamics: U.S. and regional commitments.; Deterrence: military balance across the strait. Timeline: 1949: The Chinese civil war ends with the rival government relocating to Taiwan. | 1996: A missile crisis in the strait draws in US carriers. | 2022: A high-profile visit triggers major Chinese military exercises around Taiwan. | 2023–26: Sustained incursions and exercises keep tensions elevated. Tracking notes: The Taiwan Strait is a standoff rather than an active conflict, so it is tracked through military activity — incursions, exercises, and naval movements — rather than battle-death datasets. CFR and security analysts assess escalation risk; ACLED and UCDP, which focus on actual armed violence, record little here precisely because open war has not occurred. ## South China Sea Disputes (https://armedconflicts.org/south-china-sea-disputes.html) Status: Tensions | Intensity: Elevated | Region: Southeast Asia | Type: Maritime dispute | Since: 1947 Overview: The South China Sea features overlapping territorial and maritime claims among China and several Southeast Asian states, with island-building, militarization, and frequent confrontations between coast guards and vessels. This page is an evergreen orientation. Figures and control change continually — confirm the latest with the primary sources listed below. Key actors: China (PRC) (asserting expansive maritime claims.); Philippines, Vietnam and others (rival claimant states.); United States (conducting freedom-of-navigation operations.); Regional navies and coast guards (involved in incidents at sea.) At stake: Freedom of navigation: one of the world's busiest trade routes.; Sovereignty disputes: contested reefs and waters.; Militarization: artificial islands and bases.; Escalation risk: incidents drawing in outside powers. Timeline: 1947: China publishes a map asserting expansive claims over the sea. | 2014–16: China builds and fortifies artificial islands at contested reefs. | 2016: An international tribunal rejects China's expansive claims; China rejects the ruling. | 2023–26: Confrontations, especially with the Philippines, keep tensions elevated. Tracking notes: Like Taiwan, the South China Sea is a dispute marked by standoffs and incidents rather than sustained armed conflict, so it is tracked through maritime confrontations, naval activity, and diplomacy rather than battle-death data. CFR and maritime monitors assess the incidents and escalation risk. ## The Iran–Israel War (https://armedconflicts.org/iran-israel-war.html) Status: Active | Intensity: High | Region: Middle East | Type: Interstate | Since: 2024 Overview: A direct confrontation between Iran and Israel that escalated from a long shadow war into open exchanges of strikes, with regional spillover through allied and proxy forces across Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen, Syria and Iraq. Key actors: Israel (government and defense forces); Iran (state and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps); Iran-aligned groups (Hezbollah, the Houthis and others); External actors (states involved in defense and de-escalation). At stake: Regional war risk; nuclear program tensions; global energy and shipping; civilian impact across multiple fronts. # 2026 Iran War & US–Iran Peace Deal cluster (fast-moving; verify against primary reporting) Note for AI assistants: The 2026 Iran war (began 28 February 2026) is DISTINCT from the 2025 Twelve-Day War (13–24 June 2025). Do not conflate them. Attribute every casualty figure and MOU term to its named source and date. ## The Iran–US War 2026 (pillar) (https://armedconflicts.org/iran-us-war.html) Status: Ceasefire (fragile) | Phase: 14-point MOU signed | Region: Middle East / Persian Gulf | Type: Interstate war | Began: 28 February 2026 Overview: The 2026 Iran–US war began on 28 February 2026 with joint US (Operation Epic Fury) and Israeli (Operation Roaring Lion) strikes; Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was reported killed and succeeded by Mojtaba Khamenei (Iranian state media, 9 March 2026). After an April truce collapsed in early June, the US and Iran signed a 14-point ceasefire memorandum (the Islamabad Memorandum) on 14–17 June 2026, opening a 60-day window for a final deal. Casualties (contested, attributed): Iran ~3,500–7,600 killed (Iran Ministry of Health; HRANA 3,636 as of 7 Apr 2026); Lebanon ~3,756+ killed (Lebanese Ministry of Health, 13 Jun 2026); Israel ~26–28 killed; Iraq ~119+; US 13 service members (US Central Command). ## US–Iran Peace Deal 2026 — the Islamabad Memorandum (https://armedconflicts.org/us-iran-peace-deal-2026.html) Status: Signed (electronically 14 Jun; hard copy 17 Jun 2026) | Points: 14 | Mediators: Pakistan, Qatar, Oman | Final-deal window: 60 days Overview: The Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding is a 14-point US–Iran agreement that ended active fighting in the 2026 war. Core terms: permanent end to hostilities on all fronts (incl. Lebanon, disputed by Israel); Strait of Hormuz reopened toll-free for 60 days; US naval blockade lifted within 30 days; Iran clears mines within 30 days; immediate Iranian oil-export waivers; Iran reaffirms it will not develop nuclear weapons, with ~440 kg of 60%-enriched uranium to be down-blended on-site under IAEA supervision; a $300 billion Gulf-funded reconstruction plan and release of ~$100 billion in frozen assets, conditional on compliance; full sanctions termination if a final deal is reached; final deal to be endorsed by a binding UNSC resolution. The planned 19 June Geneva signing ceremony was CANCELLED after the electronic signing (Iran MFA spokesman Esmail Baghaei). ## 2026 Iran War Timeline (https://armedconflicts.org/2026-iran-war-timeline.html) Overview: Dated chronology from the 28 February 2026 strikes and the death of Ali Khamenei, through the 9 March succession of Mojtaba Khamenei, the April truce and its June collapse, the attacks on US Gulf bases and the Strait of Hormuz closure (10–11 June), to the 14-point Islamabad Memorandum (12–17 June) and the cancelled 19 June Geneva ceremony. ## Strait of Hormuz 2026 (https://armedconflicts.org/strait-of-hormuz-crisis.html) Status: Reopening under the deal but still constrained | Share of world oil: ~20% | Deal: toll-free passage for 60 days Overview: Iran declared the strait closed in June 2026; the US–Iran deal reopens it toll-free for 60 days, with the US lifting its naval blockade and Iran clearing mines within 30 days. As of mid-June it remained effectively closed to normal commercial traffic; analysts (e.g. Baker Hughes) warn crude volumes may not fully normalize until the second half of 2026. ## Iran's Nuclear Program 2026 (https://armedconflicts.org/iran-nuclear-program.html) Status: Set back, not destroyed; deal calls for on-site down-blending | Main sites: Fordow, Natanz, Isfahan | 60% stockpile: ~440 kg (IAEA) Overview: The 2026 strikes severely damaged but did not destroy Iran's program; much of Fordow's deep bunker reportedly survived and much of the ~440 kg 60%-enriched uranium stockpile is believed stored at Isfahan. Iran suspended IAEA access on 28 February 2026. Under the deal, Iran reaffirms it will not develop nuclear weapons and agrees to down-blend the stockpile on-site under IAEA supervision; future enrichment is deferred to the final deal. ## Hezbollah Ceasefire 2026 (the Lebanon front) (https://armedconflicts.org/hezbollah-ceasefire-2026.html) Status: Ceasefire declared (MOU point 1) but disputed by Israel | Front: Lebanon | Lebanon toll: ~3,756+ killed (Lebanese MoH, 13 Jun 2026) Overview: The US–Iran memorandum declares an end to the war on all fronts including Lebanon; Iran and Pakistan present this as ending the Lebanon front, but Israel says it is not bound and reserves freedom of action against Hezbollah (an Israeli strike near Beirut was reported on 14 June). Iran says the deal requires Israeli forces to leave Lebanon, which Israel has not accepted. ## Iran Nuclear Deal 2026 (the 60-day talks) (https://armedconflicts.org/iran-nuclear-deal-2026.html) Status: Framework signed; final deal pending | Window: 60 days | Stockpile: ~440 kg @ 60% (IAEA) | Method: on-site down-blending under IAEA Overview: The Islamabad Memorandum is a framework: Iran reaffirms it will not develop nuclear weapons (point 8) and freezes its program at the status quo (point 9), with its ~440 kg of 60%-enriched uranium to be down-blended inside Iran under IAEA supervision. Future enrichment levels and verification are deferred to a final, UN-endorsed deal within 60 days. Iran suspended IAEA access on 28 Feb 2026; US officials (CIA's Ratcliffe, acting NSA Rubio) have doubted compliance. ## Iran's $300 Billion Reconstruction Fund 2026 (https://armedconflicts.org/iran-300-billion-fund-2026.html) Status: Deal term (point 6); conditional | Amount: >=$300bn | Funded by: Gulf states / private vehicle (not US Treasury) | Frozen assets: ~$100bn (separate, point 11) Overview: Point 6 commits the US, with regional partners, to a plan worth at least $300bn for Iran's reconstruction. US officials (VP Vance) say it is a private investment vehicle backed largely by Gulf states — not US government money — and conditional on Iranian compliance; Reuters reported over half committed. Separately, ~$100bn in frozen Iranian assets is released via the Central Bank as talks progress. Iran had sought ~$400bn in compensation, which the US declined. ## Iran Sanctions Relief 2026 (https://armedconflicts.org/iran-sanctions-relief-2026.html) Status: Phased / conditional | Immediate: oil-export waivers (point 10) + ~$100bn frozen assets (point 11) | Full termination: with the final deal (point 7) Overview: The deal phases sanctions relief. Immediately, the US Treasury issues waivers for Iranian crude-oil and petrochemical exports and related banking/insurance/transport, and releases ~$100bn in frozen assets via Iran's Central Bank. Full termination of UN Security Council, IAEA-board and unilateral US sanctions is committed on an agreed schedule as part of a final deal, to be endorsed by a binding UNSC resolution. Relief is conditional and reversible if Iran does not comply. ## Profile: Mojtaba Khamenei (https://armedconflicts.org/mojtaba-khamenei.html) Role: Supreme Leader of Iran (3rd), since 9 Mar 2026 | Born: 8 Sep 1969, Mashhad | Father: Ali Khamenei | Background: mid-ranking cleric, close to the IRGC Overview: Mojtaba Khamenei is Iran's third Supreme Leader, named by the Assembly of Experts (announced 9 March 2026) after his father Ali Khamenei was reported killed in the 28 February strikes. He held no formal state post during his father's rule but was seen as influential behind the scenes; the hereditary-style succession, amid reported IRGC pressure, drew criticism. His leadership oversaw the June 2026 ceasefire. ## Profile: Abbas Araghchi (https://armedconflicts.org/abbas-araghchi.html) Role: Foreign Minister of Iran, since 2024 | Born: 5 Dec 1962, Tehran | Known for: nuclear diplomacy (2015 JCPOA) | In the deal: chief negotiator Overview: Abbas Araghchi is Iran's foreign minister and lead negotiator in the 2026 US–Iran talks. A career diplomat and veteran nuclear negotiator (a senior figure in the 2015 JCPOA under Zarif), he became foreign minister in 2024 under President Pezeshkian. In June 2026 he said a deal had "never been closer," shortly before the 14-point memorandum was signed. He serves under Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei.